91st Oscars Predictions

I have now watched almost every Oscar-nominated movies and feel sort of confident predicting who's going to take each of the big awards. Next to each title will be a percentage that I feel best represents its chances of winning the statue. The nominee I would've personally voted for will be in Italics. The nominated movies I still haven't watched are "If Beale Street Could Talk", "Mirai", "Shoplifters", "Never Look Away" and "Border".

• Picture:

Black Panther - 5%
BlacKkKlansman - 10%
Bohemian Rhapsody - 5%
The Favourite - 20%
Green Book - 25%
Roma - 20%
A Star Is Born - 5%
Vice - 10%

• Actor in a Leading Role:

Christian Bale, Vice - 40%
Bradley Cooper. A Star Is Born - 10%
Willed Dafoe,  At Eternity's Gate - 1%
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody - 45%
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book - 4%

• Actress in a Leading Role:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma - 10%
Glenn Close - The Wife - 40%
Olivia Colman, The Favourite - 35%
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born - 10%
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 5%

• Director:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman - 5%
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War - 5%
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite - 5%
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma - 80%
Adam McKay, Vice - 5%

• Actor in a Supporting Role:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book - 75%
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman - 5%
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born - 8%
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 10%
Sam Rockwell, Vice - 2%

• Actress in a Supporting Role:

Amy Adams, Vice - 5%
Marina de Tavira, Roma - 5%
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk - 60%
Emma Stone, The Favourite - 10%
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite - 20%

• Adapted Screenplay:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - 5%
BlacKkKlansman - 45%
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - 20%
If Beale Street Could Talk - 20%
A Star Is Born - 10%

• Original Screenplay:

The Favourite - 40%
First Reformed - 5%
Green Book - 20%
Roma - 15%
Vice - 20%

• Animated Feature:

Incredibles 2 - 5%
Isle of Dogs - 5%
Mirai - 1%
Ralph Breaks the Internet - 4%
Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse - 85%

• Cinematography:

Lukasz Zal, Cold War - 5%
Robbie Ryan, The Favourite - 5%
Caleb Deschanel, Never Look Away - 5%
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma - 80%
Mattew Libatique, A Star Is Born - 5% 

• Editing:

Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman - 10%
John Ottman, Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
Yorgos Mavropsaridis, The Favourite - 10%
Patrick J. Don Vito, Green Book - 10%
Hank Corwin, Vice -  40%

• Foreign Language Film:

Capernaum (Lebanon) - 3%
Cold War (Poland) - 10%
Never Look Away (Germany) - 5%
Roma (Mexico) - 80%
Shoplifters (Japan) - 2%

• Sound Editing:

Black Panther - 15%
Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
First Man - 25%
A Quiet Place - 25%
Roma - 5%

• Sound Mixing:

Black Panther - 25%
Bohemian Rhapsody - 35%
First Man - 30%
Roma - 5%
A Star Is Born - 5% 

• Production Design:

Black Panther - 30%
The Favourite - 50%
First Man - 10%
Mary Poppins Returns - 10%
Roma - 10%

• Original Score:

Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther - 5%
Terence Blanchard, BlacKkKlansman - 20%
Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk - 50%
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs - 20%
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns - 5%

• Original Song:

All the Stars, Black Panther - 4%
I'll Fight, RBG - 2%
The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns - 2%
Shallow, A Star Is Born - 90%
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - 2%

• Makeup and Hair:

Border - 5%
Mary Queen of Scots - 40%
Vice - 55%

• Costume Design:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - 5%
Black Panther - 30%
The Favourite - 50%
Mary Poppins Returns - 5%
Mary Queen of Scots - 10%

• Visual Effects:

Avengers: Infinity War - 50%
Christopher Robin - 2%
First Man - 35%
Ready Player One - 8%
Solo: A Star Wars Story - 5%