90th Oscars Predictions

The 90th Academy Awards

I have now watched almost every Oscar-nominated picture and feel confident predicting who's going to take each of the big awards. However, my predictions are not necessarily my personal picks, and this is why, for each category, my guess will take the form of a percentage that I feel best represents the nominee's chances of winning the award, and my picks will be in italics. Please note that the nominated movies I still haven't watched are "All the Money in the World", "The Breadwinner", "Ferdinand", "A Fantastic Woman" and "Victoria and Abdul".

• Picture:

Call Me by Your Name - 10%

Darkest Hour - 2%

Dunkirk - 5%

Get Out - 5%

Lady Bird - 10%

Phantom Thread - 5% 

The Post - 3%

The Shape of Water - 30%

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 30%

• Actor in a Leading Role:

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name - 15%

Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread - 10%

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out - 10%

Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour - 60%

Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.- 5%

• Actress in a Leading Role:

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water - 25%

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 40%

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya - 15%

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird - 15%

Meryl Streep, The Post - 5%

• Director:

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk -15%

Jordan Peele, Get Out - 15%

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird - 15%

Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread - 10%
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water - 45%

• Actor in a Supporting Role:

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project - 10%

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 5%

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water - 15%

Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World - 10%
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 60%

• Actress in a Supporting Role:

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound - 5%
Allison Janney, I, Tonya - 60%

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread - 15%

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird - 10%

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water - 10%

• Adapted Screenplay:

James Ivory, Call Me by Your Name - 50%

Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber, The Disaster Artist - 25%

Scott Frank, James Mangold & Michael Green, Logan - 10%

Aaron Sorkin, Molly's Game - 5%

Virgil Williams & Dee Rees, Mudbound - 10%

• Original Screenplay:

Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick - 10%

Jordan Peele, Get Out - 15%

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird - 15%
Guillermo del Toro & Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water - 40%

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 20%

• Animated Feature:

The Boss Baby - 2%

The Breadwinner - 5%
Coco - 85%

Ferdinand - 3%

Loving Vincent - 5%

• Cinematography:

Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 - 45%

Bruno Delbonnel, Darkest Hour - 10%

Hoyte van Hoytema, Dunkirk - 20%

Rachel Morrison, Mudbound - 10%

Dan Laustsen, The Shape of Water - 15%

• Editing:

Jonathan Amos & Paul Machliss, Baby Driver - 30%
Lee Smith, Dunkirk - 35%

Tatiana S. Riegel, I, Tonya - 10%

Sidney Wolinsky, The Shape of Water - 15%

Jon Gregory, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 10%

• Foreign Language Film:

A Fantastic Woman (Chile) - 30%

The Insult (Lebanon) - 15%

Loveless (Russia) - 20%

On Body and Soul (Hungary) - 15%

The Square (Sweden) - 20%

• Sound Editing:

Baby Driver - 20%

Blade Runner 2049 - 30%

Dunkirk - 30%

The Shape of Water - 15%

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 5%

• Sound Mixing:

Baby Driver - 20%

Blade Runner 2049 - 25%
Dunkirk - 35%

The Shape of Water - 10%

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 10%

• Production Design:

Beauty and the Beast - 10%

Blade Runner 2049 - 35%

Darkest Hour - 10%

Dunkirk - 10%
The Shape of Water - 35%

• Original Score:

Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk - 10%

Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread - 10%
Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water - 60%

John Williams, Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 5%

Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 15%

• Original Song:

Mighty River, Mudbound - 5%

Mystery of Love, Call Me by Your Name - 20%

Remember Me, Coco - 10%

Stand Up for Something, Marshall - 5%
This is Me, The Greatest Showman - 60%

• Makeup and Hair:

Darkest Hour - 90%

Victoria and Abdul - 3%

Wonder - 7%

• Costume Design:

Beauty and the Beast - 15%

Darkest Hour - 25%
Phantom Thread - 40%

The Shape of Water - 15%

Victoria and Abdul - 5%

• Visual Effects:

Blade Runner 2049 - 50%

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - 5%

Kong: Skull Island - 5%

Star Wars: The Last Jedi - 20%

War for the Planet of the Apes - 20%